Equities
3 indicatorsIndicatorLevelChange20 sessionsClose
S&P 500US equities
7,758+0.6%7 AugNasdaqUS tech
26,691+1.3%7 AugDow Jones30 industrials
54,037+0.3%7 AugVolatility & breadth
4 indicatorsIndicatorLevelChange20 sessionsClose
VIX term structureVIX / VIX3M
0.81 · contangoCorrelationsstocks · bonds · dollar
stableRates & credit
6 indicatorsIndicatorLevelChange20 sessionsClose
Currencies
3 indicatorsIndicatorLevelChange20 sessionsClose
Commodities
2 indicatorsCrypto
4 indicatorsIndicatorLevelChange20 sessionsClose
Bitcoincrypto
64,886+1.0%7 AugEthercrypto
1,913+0.6%7 AugSolanacrypto
74+1.4%7 AugXRPcrypto
1.02−1.3%7 AugActive signals
triggered over the last five sessionsbrent: -7.27% en la última sesión (z=-2.2 vs 1 año)
The day’s move was statistically unusual compared with the past year (z-score).
What this is →No active signals over the last five sessions: a quiet market.
Historical context
today vs the 5-year average and the extremes of three crises · history since 2006IndicatorToday5y avgPercentileBear 2022Covid2008
VIXsince 2006
15.219.236.582.780.910y–2y curvesince 2006
46 bp7 bp−51 bp12 bp127 bp10y–3m curvesince 2006
78 bp−8 bp−17 bp−20 bp195 bpBaa spread (Moody’s)since 2006
161 bp180 bp242 bp431 bp616 bpUST 10 yearssince 2006
4.69%3.73%1.63%0.54%2.08%Fed Fundssince 2006
3.63%3.66%0.08%0.04%0.08%S&P 500since 2016
7,7585,2253,5772,237—WTI crudesince 2006
78 $78 $76 $−38 $34 $US unemploymentsince 2006
4.1%4.0%3.9%14.8%8.7%Weekly claimssince 2006
199k225k250k6,137k665kFinancial conditionssince 2006
−0.53−0.40−0.100.303.0730-year mortgagesince 2006
6.69%6.09%7.08%3.65%6.46%Inflation (CPI y/y)since 2007
3.7%4.5%9.0%1.5%5.0%Housing permitssince 2006
1,374k1,531k1,565k1,079k513kMichigan sentimentsince 2006
49.562.950.071.855.3Each crisis column shows the episode’s stress extreme (the peak for VIX, spreads or unemployment; the trough for the curve, stocks or sentiment) within fixed windows: 2022 bear (Jan 3 – Oct 31, 2022), Covid (Feb 15 – Apr 30, 2020) and the financial crisis (Sep 1, 2008 – Mar 31, 2009). A “—” means the source publishes no history for that era. The percentile places today’s level within the full history. Data: FRED.
Economic calendar
data releases and rate decisions Atalor watchesThis week
Wed Aug 12
Financial conditions (NFCI)US CPI
Thu Aug 13
Fed balance sheet (H.4.1)30-year mortgage (Freddie Mac)Weekly jobless claims
Fri Aug 14
US retail salesUS bank credit (H.8)
Coming up
Mon Aug 17
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Tue Aug 18
Industrial production (G.17) · Housing permits & starts
Wed Aug 19
Financial conditions (NFCI)
Thu Aug 20
Fed balance sheet (H.4.1) · Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey · 30-year mortgage (Freddie Mac) · Weekly jobless claims
Fri Aug 21
US bank credit (H.8)
Tue Aug 25
Money supply M2 (H.6) · Housing permits & starts
Wed Aug 26
Financial conditions (NFCI) · US PCE & personal income
Thu Aug 27
Fed balance sheet (H.4.1) · 30-year mortgage (Freddie Mac) · Weekly jobless claims
Fri Aug 28
US bank credit (H.8) · Consumer sentiment (Michigan)
Wed Sep 2
Bank of Japan balance sheet · Financial conditions (NFCI)
Thu Sep 3
Fed balance sheet (H.4.1) · 30-year mortgage (Freddie Mac) · Weekly jobless claims
Fri Sep 4
US jobs report · US bank credit (H.8)