US Inflation Accelerates to 4.3% as Recession Dashboard Stays Green

US inflation is rebounding sharply (CPI 4.3% and PCE 4.1%, both accelerating) while the rest of the macro picture stays stable: no crisis signals lit up, solid employment, and expanding credit. The focus returns to prices, not the cycle.

0 of 8 flags triggered. The classic indicators that anticipate recessions are all switched off:

• Sahm Rule: 0.07 pp (threshold 0.50).
• 10y−3m curve: +71 bp (not inverted).
• Unemployment claims: −7% year-on-year (threshold +15%).
• Mortgage delinquency: +0.12 pp over 1 year (threshold +0.30).
• Business credit: +8.0% year-on-year (no contraction).
• Financial conditions (NFCI): −0.52 (threshold 0).
• Housing: permits −0.4% y/y (threshold −10%).
• High-yield stress: 270 bp, z=−1.2.

None crosses its threshold. The recession dashboard is green.

In the US the signal is clear and rising:

• CPI: 4.3% year-on-year, accelerating +1.6 pp over three months (from 2.7%). May 2026 data.
• PCE: 4.1% year-on-year, accelerating +1.2 pp over three months (from 2.9%).

In the euro area the pressure is much lower: HICP 2.8% year-on-year, with a mild acceleration of +0.2 pp over three months (June 2026 data). The divergence between the two blocs is notable.

The US labor market remains solid:

• Unemployment: 4.2%, −0.1 pp over three months.
• Payrolls: +57k in the month.
• Sahm Rule: 0.07 pp, well below the signal threshold (0.50); three-month average unemployment at 4.3%.
• Weekly claims: 219k (4-week average), −7% versus a year ago.

All employment indicators point to strength, with no deterioration.

Mixed picture but no alarm:

• Mortgage delinquency: 1.89%, up +0.12 pp over one year.
• Credit card delinquency: 2.92%, down −0.14 pp over one year.
• Business delinquency: 1.34%, up +0.05 pp over one year.
• Business credit: +8.0% year-on-year; consumer credit: +2.1% year-on-year.
• Financial conditions (NFCI): −0.52, loose (below its historical average).

Delinquencies confirm with a lag and remain contained; credit keeps flowing and financial conditions are loose.

• Industrial production: +1.7% year-on-year.
• Retail sales: +6.9% year-on-year (nominal), consumption solid.
• Housing: permits −0.4% y/y and starts −8.7% y/y; the 30-year mortgage rate stands at 6.49% (−0.23 pp over one year). Housing, which usually leads the cycle, shows relative weakness though without collapsing.
• Consumer confidence: 44.8, −7.4 over one year and in recessionary territory (below 70).

The discordant note is consumer confidence, very depressed even as retail spending keeps growing.

• Fed: 3.62%, unchanged over the last month (−0.02 pp over three months).
• ECB (deposit facility): 2.25%, +25 bp over the last month and over three months.

The Fed is holding; the ECB has hiked over the last month.

The set of signals points to an economy in expansion with no signs of imminent recession: all 8 crisis flags are off, employment is solid, credit is expanding, and financial conditions are loose. The dominant risk is not the cycle but prices: US CPI and PCE are accelerating sharply (+1.6 and +1.2 pp over three months), in contrast with a more contained euro area (2.8%). Points of friction are housing —starts falling −8.7% y/y, though permits barely give ground— and consumer confidence at recessionary levels (44.8), contradicted by retail sales at +6.9%. In short: solid cycle fundamentals, rising inflationary pressure in the US, and some mixed demand signals worth watching.